Application of Markov chain Model in transition of girls in Public secondary schools; a case Study of Kisumu west sub-county, Kenya

Abstract

Transition is a very important factor in determining success of a student in secondary school. It forms a basis for implementing poverty reduction strategy by the government through acquisition of basic literal skills to increase opportunities for employment. Girls have not had an efficient transition from form one to the next form in secondary schools because of choices of secondary school types they enroll in. This research uses a Markov chain model to compare and predict the percentage transition rates, expected duration of study and absorbing rates from form one to form four in a period of four years between 2012-2015 of girls in pure public secondary schools compared to those in mixed secondary schools in Kisumu west Sub county of Kisumu county Kenya. The objectives of this study were to determine and compare the sub county’s transition rates, expected durations of study, absorption rates and recommend the best school that will favour efficient transition for girls. All the four pure girls secondary schools in the sub county were used and equivalent mixed schools picked by purposive random sampling. The cohort for the study included the sub county’s form one girl from pure girl secondary and girls from mixed secondary schools enrolled in 2012, monitored up to form four in 2015. The study realized that transition rates for girls in pure girls’ schools were higher than those in mixed secondary schools, expected duration study was shorter in mixed schools compared to those in pure girls schools and finally higher absorption rates of girls in pure compared to those in mixed secondary schools in Kisumu West sub county. The dropout rate was higher for girls in mixed but highest in form threes in mixed. The study would help in choosing the effective school type for girls and stake holders in adopting the appropriate way to curb girls attrition.