A Metapopulation ModelfFor Cholera With Variable Media Efficacy and Imperfect Vaccine

Abstract

Cholera, a diarrheal disease caused by a pathogenic virulent bacteria known as Vibrio cholerae, a_ects both children and adults and can kill within hours if left untreated. It continues to persist in developing coun- tries where there is inadequate access to clean water and sanitation facil- ities. Recent cholera metapopulation models assume a uniform e_cacy of the control strategies across the communities involved and that, once vaccinated, the individuals are fully protected from the infection. These assumptions may not be entirely true or realistic since cholera vaccines do not confer 100% immunity and community speci_c demographics and the behavior of individuals are likely to a_ect the implementation and success of the control strategies. This study developed and analysed a metapopu- lation model for cholera with imperfect vaccine and variable media aware- ness as the control strategies. The results of stability analysis show that the disease free equilibrium point is both locally and globally asymptoti- cally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity while the endemic equilibrium points are locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Results from simu- lation analysis done using existing epidemiological data are in agreement with the analytic results. The simulation results further show that e_- cient media awareness reduces the transmission rate and that even with imperfect vaccine, cholera transmission is reduced. It is therefore advis- able that health practitioners embrace the use of both vaccination and media awareness when designing and implementing community speci_c intervention strategies.