Mathematical Models for Malaria Co-Infections With Persistent Pediatric Infections in Kenya

Abstract

Despite many years of study and advanced biological, medical and mathematical understanding of diseases together with commitment to child survival, malaria and persistent infectious diseases of childhood continue to inflict the developing nations, especially the Sub-Saharan Africa in large proportions. In 1990 the Kenyan under-five mortality rate was reported as 97 deaths per 1000 live births, but in 2006 it had increased to 121 deaths per 1000 live births. Kenya is thus among the countries with least progress towards Millennium Development Goal Four (MDG 4) of 32 deaths per 1000live births in 2015. In malaria endemic places, malaria co-infections with persistent infections like meningitis, pneumonia and rotavirus are common. Furthermore, these diseases have a high symptom overlap with malaria thus frequently leading to clinical misdiagnosis and its associated problems. The objective of the study was to develop and analyse, using the stability concepts of differential equations, deterministic mathematical models for the co-infection of malaria with meningitis, pneumonia and rotavirus among Kenyan children under the age of five years. This is because children in this age group have not developed sufficient immunity and are thus more vulnerable to infection. The symptom overlap between malaria and these persistent infections, in resource scarce settings typical of the developing world, is a cause for concern. This is because in such settings diagnosis is often clinically done. Our analysis indicate that protection against a second infection is desirable in minimizing the effects of co-infection. Without laboratory diagnosis, the presence or absence of a co-infection may not be established