| dc.description.abstract | Studies in climatology have revealed that the weather patterns of the world have become
very variable during the last half of the twentienth century. The causes of the variability
have identified as sunspot activity, earth's orbit, decline in the solar beam, injection of
both natural and man made aerosols in the atmosphere, depletion of the ozone layer and
albedo change due to deforestation and increased carbondioxide in the atmosphere.
The most affected weather element by the above mentioned factors is rainfall and the
.areas most affected by the sudden changes in rainfall characteristics are the Arid and
Semi-arid Lands (ASAL) of the world, which are already moisture constrained. Most
parts of Africa suffer from aridity, where for example, 83 percent of Kenya's total area is
either arid or semi-arid. .
The study generally focussed on the impact of rainfall variability on environmental
transformations in semi-arid Baringo district in Kenya. Other objectives include:
Identification of rainfall characteristics i.e intensities droughts and trends between 1960-
1995 by use of monthly and annual rainfall totals, identification of the impact of rainfall
variability impact on pastoralism, crop cultivation and the general economic status of the
people of semi-arid Baringo.
In order to achieve the stated objectives, the following hypotheses were selected for
testing:- There is no significant difference in rainfall variability between Marigat and
Nginyang, there is no significant relationship between rainfall variability and (a) size (b)
depth and (c) fish production on lake Baringo and there is no significant relationship
between rainfall variability and (a) animal loss (b) crop production in semi-arid Baringo.
Methods of data collection in this study include:- Reviewing of the available literature
related to the topic, collection of relevant documented data from weather stations,
KEMRI, Fisheries department, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock development, all
located within the study area, and Administration of structured and unstructured
questions on selected topics (pastoralism, crop cultivation, health). Techniques in
climatology such as precipitation Concentration Index (PCK), Coefficient of Variability
(CV), Relative Variability (RV) Correlation Coefficient, Student t-test and Time Series
analysis were used.
Empirical findings established that semi-arid Baringo suffers from erratic and variable
rainfall in time and space, such that, there was a significant difference in rainfall between,
Marigat and Nginyang where Nginyang was best described as arid while Marigat as
semi-arid. It was further established that Marigat experienced frequent droughts lasting
between 2-3 consecutive years, while Nginyang experienced prolonged droughts lasting
over five consecutive years leading to temporary climate change. The general rainfall
trend in the study area pointed towards drier conditions in future.
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The study also established a strong correlation between rainfall variability, lake Baringo
size and depth such that, when rainfall increases the size(surface area) and depth of the
lake increases and during droughts, the lake shrinks in size and drops in depth.
Surprisingly, there is minimal correlation between rainfall variability and fish production.
Rainfall amount has very little influence on fish production. On the other hand, it was
established that rainfall variability was responsible for a great percentage of animal loss
collapse of rainfall rainfed crop cultivation in Marigat, poor health and school enrolment
and attendance.
From the findings of the study, was concluded that rainfall variability in semi-arid
Baringo was responsible for the economic collapse, poverty and persistent starvation
among the residents. In order to alleviate some of the problems caused by rainfall
variability in the study area, a holistic approach was recommended where all the relevant
personnel must work together towards behavioural change of the residents, technical and
scientific improvement of the environment. | en_US |
